According to an article in Bloomberg, billionaire investor George Soros is predicting that U.S. commercial real estate will drop at least 30 percent in value in 2009.
The article said:
“Commercial real estate has not yet fallen in value,” Soros, speaking at a forum in Washington, said. “It is inevitable, it is written, everybody knows it, there are already some transactions which reflect and anticipate it, so we know, they will drop at least 30 percent.”
Commercial real estate has already fallen 30 percent in value since its peak in 2007. Caused by a recession and the lack of credit, many commercial real estate properties are facing foreclosure and even some responsible commercial real estate companies are facing bankruptcy. As occupancy rates plunge due to retailers and other companies facing lower sales and bankruptcy, many commercial real estate companies are being forced to lower rents, offer unprofitable leases or simply hold empty property with no way to unload it.
If we begin to see a foreclosure crisis in commercial real estate we may experience many more banks going bankrupt along with other businesses dependent on the commercial real estate industry. With more foreclosures and corporate bankruptcies we will see even more job loss blows to an already shaken American consumer, and thus the cycle of consumer contraction and business closures will continue.